北京时间3月17日凌晨消息，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）于美国东部时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨2点）公布了货币政策声明，决定将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%到0.5%的目标区间不变。
美联储在声明中称，尽管最近几个月以来全球经济和金融发展形势不佳，但美国经济活动一直都在以稳健的步伐扩张，并指出全球经济和金融形势发展继续带来了风险。声明还显示，此次会议上并非所有与会委员都投票支持将基准利率维持不变，堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治希望将其目标区间上调至0.5%到0.75%。
此外，美联储暗示，该行预计今年仅将加息两次，相比之下美联储高官在去年12月份预测为今年加息四次。
美联储的最新预期是，到今年年底联邦基金利率将上升至0.9%，相比之下此前预期为1.4%。此外，该行高官还预计到2017年底基准利率将上升至1.9%，到2018年上升至3%，从“长期”来看则将达到3.3%，低于此前预期的3.5%。
美联储将2016年美国GDP增长预期从2.4%下调到了2.2%，并预计个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）到年底将上升至1.2%，低于此前预期的1.6%。
声明全文如下：
自联邦公开市场委员会1月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明，尽管最近几个月以来全球经济和金融发展形势不佳，但美国经济活动一直都在以稳健的步伐扩张。家庭支出一直都在以稳健的速度增长，住房部门进一步改善；但是，企业固定投资和净出口则一直保持疲软。最近公布的一系列指标（其中包括就业人数的强劲增长等）表明就业市场进一步增强。通货膨胀在最近几个月中加速上升，但继续低于联邦公开市场委员会的长期目标，这部分反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。整体而言，最近几个月中以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标仍旧保持在较低水平，以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。
联邦公开市场委员会正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计，通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式，经济活动将以稳健的步伐扩张，就业市场指标将继续增强。但是，全球经济和金融形势发展继续带来了风险。预计通货膨胀近期仍将保持在较低水平，部分原因是能源价格进一步下跌，但随着能源和进口产品价格下跌的暂时性影响消散以及就业市场进一步增强，通胀率将在中期上升至2%。联邦公开市场委员会将继续密切监控通货膨胀的形势发展。
在这种背景下，联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率保持在0.25%到0.5%的目标区间不变。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松，从而为就业市场状况的进一步改善和通货膨胀重返2%提供支持。
为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模，联邦公开市场委员会将对有关其最大就业和2%通货膨胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内，包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际发展的读数等。鉴于目前通货膨胀尚未达到2%的形势，联邦公开市场委员会将仔细监控朝向通货膨胀目标的实际和预期将有的进展。联邦公开市场委员会预计，经济状况的发展仅可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率；在一段时间之内，联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是，联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。
联邦公开市场委员会将维持现有的政策，将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去，在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期，并预计直到联邦基金利率水平的正常化进程顺利展开以前都将继续这样做。这项政策令联邦公开市场委员会的长期债券持有量保持在可观的水平，应可有助于保持融通的金融状况。
在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有：主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet L. Yellen）、副主席威廉·杜德利（William C. Dudley）、莱尔·布莱恩纳德（Lael Brainard）、詹姆斯·布拉德（James Bullard）、斯坦利·费希尔（Stanley Fischer）、洛丽塔·梅斯特（Loretta J. Mester）、杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、埃里克·罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren）和丹尼尔·塔鲁洛（Daniel K. Tarullo）。埃丝特·乔治（Esther L. George）投票反对这项行动，她更希望在此次会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至0.5%到0.75%。（星云）
声明原文如下：
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee’s 2% longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2% over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at ?% to ?%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2%, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to ? to 3/4 percent.
